The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
Since infrastructure projects have long gestation periods, investors need to enter them with a long horizon of at least 10 years.
Participants are keeping an eye on the Winter Session of Parliament, which started today, and US fiscal policies to be followed by President-elect Donald Trump
Banks stocks continued to trade weak along with FMCG major ITC.
Investor sentiments remained upbeat tracking global developments as the US, China geared up for trade talks due this week.
Among major Sensex movers, Reliance Industries soared by 3.29 per cent as energy prices rose due to the war in Ukraine. Tata Steel emerged as the lead gainer among Sensex scrips, jumping by 6.61 per cent. Power Grid, Titan, NTPC, ICICI Bank, L&T, Infosys and Sun Pharma were among the gainers.
In the broader market, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices gained 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
Key stock indices Sensex and Nifty declined over 1 per cent at close on Monday due to heavy selling in banking, auto and FMCG shares amid weak global market trends and continued foreign fund outflows. Reversing its previous session's gains, benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 638.11 points or 1.11 per cent to settle at 56,788.81. During the day, it tanked 743.52 points or 1.29 per cent to 56,683.40. The broader NSE Nifty fell by 207 points or 1.21 per cent to end at 16,887.35 as 42 of its constituents declined.
The wider NSE Nifty touched a low of 10,652.40 before finishing at 10,671.40, showing a loss of 97.75 points, or 0.91 per cent.
Top losers in the Sensex pack include Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Asian Paints, RIL, Coal India, HDFC Bank, HDFC, TCS, ONGC and M&M, falling up to 3.09 per cent.
Banking and financial stocks got more than their fair share of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows in February. Overseas investors pumped in $3.56 billion into domestic equities last month. Of this $1.96 billion went into financial stocks, data analysed by Edelweiss shows. "The sector now has 34.8 per cent of FPI assets, up from 33.8 per cent in January.
Benchmark Sensex declined 224 points on Wednesday, snapping its four-session winning streak, mainly due to sell-off in IT and pharma counters amid rising concerns over possible aggressive interest rate hikes to tame high inflation. The 30-share index rebounded more than 1,200 points from the early lows before settling at 60,346.97 points, a total loss of 224.11 points or 0.37 per cent compared to Tuesday's closing level. The broader NSE Nifty closed lower 66.30 points or 0.37 per cent at 18,003.75 points.
A recovery in rupee, buying by domestic institutional investors, encouraging earnings by select blue-chips and stock specific buying helped the market get back on its feet
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
Reflecting the bearish mood, all sectoral indices, led by metal, teck and healthcare, ended in the negative zone.
Equity benchmark Sensex declined nearly 390 points on Friday, pressured by heavy selling in IT, tech and energy stocks despite a positive trend in the global markets. Besides, rising crude oil prices and relentless foreign capital outflows further weighed on sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened strong but came under severe selling pressure to close 389.01 points or 0.62 per cent lower at 62,181.67.
Broader market outperformed the benchmark indices with S&P BSE Midcap gaining over 1%
Earning numbers of blue-chips, including ITC and SBI, due tomorrow.
Manufacturing companies have been outperformers on the bourses in the current year, leading to a rise in their weighting in the benchmark index. Companies in sectors such as FMCG, automobile, pharmaceuticals, metals, cement, and agrochemicals now account for 25.43 per cent of the Nifty 50 index, up 88 basis points from 24.55 per cent at the end of December last year and a record low of 23.1 per cent at the end of CY20. The manufacturing sector is now dominated by FMCG majors such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Asian Paints, Nestle, and Britannia, accounting for 45 per cent of the combined market cap of all manufacturing companies in the index.
On the sectoral map, consumer durables stayed in the lead by surging 2.39 per cent, followed by realty index, oil and gas and infra.
Oil & gas, banking and pharma sector stocks stole the show
Equity markets maintained their winning momentum for the second day in a row on Thursday, with the Sensex surging over 874 points, propelled by index majors Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC twins amid a mixed trend in global markets. The BSE benchmark Sensex zoomed 874.18 points or 1.53 per cent to finish at 57,911.68. During the day, it jumped 954.03 points or 1.67 per cent to 57,991.53. The NSE Nifty rallied 256.05 points or 1.49 per cent to 17,392.60.
Sensex closed over 118 points down on Thursday.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by about 322 points to close above the 60,000 level on Monday tracking gains in banking, IT and energy stocks amid positive global equities. The 30-share barometer closed higher by 321.99 pts or 0.54 per cent at a three-week high of 60,115.13, as 21 of the index constituents closed in the green. After a strong opening, the index touched a day's high of 60,284.55 and a low of 59,912.29.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have performed better than the front-liners
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
Two firms belonging to the Adani group - India's most valued conglomerate - are part of the Nifty 50 index. The group, however, has no representation in the Sensex. And it could stay this way if a proposed index qualification rule change gets approved. Recently, Asia Index, a joint venture between S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE responsible for index composition, floated a consultation paper where it proposed that a stock must have a derivative contract to be eligible for inclusion in the flagship 30-share Sensex index.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
The information technology (IT) services industry could see value investors taking selective punts in the near future. While growth remains visible, managements across the board have been cautious or measured in their guidance and have also complained about a combination of margin pressures and high churn. The two factors are related in that employee compensation is a large component of IT costs and high churn has forced firms to hike compensation packages and also invest more in hiring, training, and retention.
Benchmark indices bounced back on Wednesday after falling for five straight sessions, with investors snapping up the recently-mauled IT, finance and consumption stocks amid a supportive trend overseas. A rebounding rupee further bolstered sentiment, traders said. Halting its five-session slide, the BSE Sensex jumped 574.35 points or 1.02 per cent to finish at 57,037.50. Similarly, the NSE Nifty surged 177.90 points or 1.05 per cent to 17,136.55.
Axis Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, tanking over 6 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, HUL and Tata Steel. NSE Nifty fell 57.45 points to 18,210.95.
This surpassed its previous record close of 29,974.24, reached on April 5.
Tech Mahindra was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty fell 185.60 points to 17,671.65.
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 5 per cent, followed by Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finserv, SBI, Nestle India, ITC, Axis Bank and Tata Steel. Nifty rose 46 points to its fresh closing peak of 17,991.95.
Just because India has outperformed the US markets in a short recent period, it does not mean that this is based on fundamental reasons that are here to stay, points out Debashis Basu.
Sun Pharma emerged as the star performer and closed 4.03 per cent up at Rs 675.45, while Cipla rallied 1.58 per cent to Rs 592.60.
Sensex rally was driven by Bajaj FinServ, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HDFC and Axis Bank. NSE Nifty climbed 326.50 points to end at 15,245.60.
Equity indices frittered away a good start to close with modest losses on Monday, pressured by heavy selling in metal stocks after the government imposed export duties on steel-making raw materials to curb soaring prices. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened strong and gained momentum as the session progressed, but came under severe selling pressure in afternoon trade to close 37.78 points or 0.07 per cent lower at 54,288.61. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty slipped 51.45 points or 0.32 per cent to end at 16,214.70.
